Democracy appears to be in regression in West Africa where soldiers have toppled four elected governments in three years. The 48-year-old sub-regional bloc, ECOWAS, is under pressure to stop the trend but both opportunities and danger lay on its path.

There have been successful military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger from 2020 to date. On Tuesday, the police in Sierra Leone arrested several persons, including senior military officers, in connection with a suspected coup plot. President Julius Bio, himself a former coup leader, was elected to a second term only in June.

The putschists have cited the harsh economic conditions of citizens in some of the poorest countries in the world to justify their coups. The latest development is an opportunity for ECOWAS to demonstrate it is not a toothless barking dog and Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, who is the chairman of the body, has tried to rally the leaders to action.

ECOWAS has threatened to use force to reinstate the deposed President Mohamed Bazoum if the coup plotters refuse to do so within seven days. But their fellow coup plotters in Burkina Faso and Mali, have warned against the use of force and pledged their solidarity with the junta in Niger.

Niger is one of the largest countries in the Sahel and plays a vital role in the fight against jihadists in the region. Its fall under military rule will have a cocktail of implications for the fight against terrorism and insurgency in the region, including for Nigeria, should the situation in the country escalate.

The plight of the Niger coup, is totally held on Nigeria participation in coping the menace of their action by Ecowas. And adding to the fact that Nigeria pioneers the administration of the confederation, lots stake is placed on the administrative to be equitable enough to includes it citizens at the fronteirs of such conflict. That as of the now, rumors has it that youth corps are also enlisted for their entitlement in the so called intervention... 

According to a political juggernaut Jibrin Ibrahim, a professor of Political Science, warned that the use of force in Niger will be a “real crisis for ECOWAS, Nigeria and the Sahel because the risk of the major sustained crisis is real.”

He added that the size of Niger with its scattered population and land mass will make a military campaign perilous. And he also added that, Ecowas which i concur has been use us as puppet of the western countries to create terrible initiatives to protect their interest. And we are gladfully and delightfully through the inresponsibility of leaders not to ascertain the norms that controls and international collective security and peace diploma to cuddle situations without influencing violence that makes our own stand contrary to our interest and a subnational/ regional group.. I comment too poor... 

And also to put you on awareness, noting the fact that the americans are always looking for avenues to create influences and stand supreme in the apex of power, following the crisis of the russia and Ukraine war you just have to be creative and innovative in our actions... 

Another dimension is geopolitics,” Mr Ibrahim said. “With the war between Ukraine and Russia has been intense with Ukraine acting as a proxy for the West. The Russians have made it very clear that they will support the Niger military in this fight, so, we may have a fight that is really a fight between Russia and America and we are simply puns in that fight. That for me is the biggest risk for West Africa.”

With the US and France having their bases in Niger, and Russia posturing as the ally Africa so desperately needs, Niger may become a theatre for the show of power between the West and the East.

The just concluded Russia-Africa summit and the juicy promises President Vladimir Putin made to African leaders may also offer Russia a soft landing in the region.

However, Russia said it opposes a military solution to the conflict and that it has no plans to send its forces to Niger. But the Wagner mercenary group is already active in the region and has expressed support for the plotters in Niamey.

Mr Ibrahim noted that Niger has been a good friend to Nigeria, recalling the Nigerian civil war period when despite being pressured by France to support Biafra, Niger refused and stayed with Nigeria.

We have had good relationship with this people including in commerce. So lets not jeopardise our relationship because of the influence of external forces....